The Ruben Amaro Thought Process

    In most cities across the country, the MLB trade deadline is an event that can be compared to Ground Hog Day in terms of National Holidays. It’s something that crosses some people’s minds but for most people is just another day. In Philadelphia, the fans are 10 year old children and the MLB trade deadline is Christmas morning. For the last couple years, the big man himself, Ruben Amaro has given his children brand new toys that the kids haven’t even really asked for. These “toys” have cost the Phillies a great deal of money and talent but they have continually made less and less of an impact as the last few years have played out. So now this deadline was different, no fancy presents were found under the tree for Philly fans this year. 

    A few weeks ago, it seemed like the team might be buyers. A strong surge at the end of the first half had most people optimistic that this aging team had potential. The All-Star game happened, and the second half began. A team that supposedly “thrives” in the second half of the season got off to an abysmal start following the All-Star break. The team is now 2-9 since the break and has looked worse than….Well there is not really anything as bad as these last two weeks that you can compare this Phillies team to. In those 9 losses the team has lost by an average of 5 runs per game with a run differential of 24-45. Their defensive play has resembled that of Smalls on his first day at the Sandlot and the team has produced little to no run support for their lackluster pitching performances. Needless to say, the idea of the Phillies being buyers quickly diminished and the thought of being sellers became much more real in Philly. Guys like: Chase Utley, Michael Young, Jimmy Rollins, Jonathan Papelbon, and Cliff Lee were all rumored to be on their way out of Philadelphia. Fans’ excitement shifted from the idea of receiving proven talent that would contribute to the 2013 club to wondering what young prospects would be sent in a package to help the team in future years.

 

   The rumor with the most substance seemed to have been the Cliff Lee to the Red Sox deal. The Red Sox have a boat load of young talent that is just on the brim of the major leagues that would fit nicely in a deal for a top of the rotation star. Social Media blew up when Jackie Bradley Jr. was pulled from a game early for Pawtucket suggesting that a deal may have been made. As it turned out, Ruben Amaro sat on his hands and decided to stay quiet at the deadline this year. It would be interesting to know what exactly went through Ruben Amaro’s mind in the last week or so. Did he try to deal Lee or any other players? Was his asking price too high? Should he have compromised and made a deal that was not quite what he was looking for? Whatever the case may be, the Red Sox decided that Jake Peavy was a better route for them to take and the Phillies roster looks exactly as it did a week ago.

 

   This was an interesting move by Amaro since his team is now stuck in a funny place. They have a roster filled with players who were once stars as the organization now tries to milk whatever talent they have left. The minor league system has been depleted in trades to get those players who now find themselves nearing the end of their careers. It is obvious that what the Phillies have tried to pull off the last two years is not working, yet their GM continues to insist that they are going to compete in the near future.  It will be interesting to see how Amaro handles the rest of the season as well as the coming off-season as the current team seems to desperately require drastic changes. 

 
 

Countdown to Clearwater: Pitchers & Catchers Report

   As the stories of bubble gum and sunflower seeds heading from Philly to Florida start to surface, the anticipation of baseball begins to build with each day. Phillies' pitchers and catchers are scheduled to report to Clearwater in just 6 days but this year's camp is sure to have a much different feel than those of the last few seasons.

   As most fans remember,  the day pitchers and catchers reported in 2011 looked more like a reality tv show than the pitcher's first workout. Everyone in the sports world wanted a glimpse at what could have been one of the greatest pitching rotations of all time. A press conference was called and reporters lined up to interview the "Phab 4" of: Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt. Being the good guys that they are, they even invited Joe Blanton in on the fun as they fielded questions about how good this staff was really going to be. We all know how the 2011 season worked out as the team fell short in the playoffs for the 3rd straight year, but the anticipation of that rotation is engraved in every fan's mind.

   As we fast forward just two years, the outlook on this pitching staff couldn't be more different. While 3 of the core guys remain in Halladay, Lee, and Hamels, a disappointing 2012 campaign has people wondering what to expect out of this 2013 staff.

Starting Rotation

Roy Halladay will be looking to improve on a disappointing 2012

   For the first time in a while, spring training will probably play a large role in how the Phillies' rotation looks at the beginning of April. For the last two years, Roy Halladay has been the predetermined number one guy. After he sported an 11-8 record with a 4.49 ERA in 2012, Mr. Halladay may have some things to prove in Florida if he wants to be on the mound in Atlanta for opening day. On the other hand, Cole Hamels went out and had the best season of his career and was rewarded with a $153 million contract. After finishing the year with 17 wins, Hamels would be my pick for the #1 slot. Cliff Lee had a rather strange 2012, where he pitched fairly well for the most part but was given virtually no run support. That resulted in below average statistics, specifically in the win column for Lee. The 4th spot in the rotation will likely be held by the man who the Phillies always seems to go to when they have no one better. Kyle Kendrick will once again have his shot at the rotation and will once again have a shot to blow it and be moved to the bullpen. Luckily for Kendrick, the Phillies really don't have any alternatives this year and after a very solid stretch towards the end of 2012, Kendrick has given the coaching staff reason to be optimistic in his ability as a starter. The basement of the rotation is likely to be held by Chase Utley's good friend John Lannan. He wasn't good enough for the Nationals rotation so apparently Ruben Amaro figured he would be a good contender for the final spot on the Phillies staff. The job is most likely Lannan's to lose and he should have the spot locked up with a solid spring. If something goes wrong with Lannan or any of the other starters for that matter, Tyler Cloyd and/or Jonathan Pettibone could be thrown into action throughout the year.

Bullpen

   Looking at the names that the Phillies have in contention for a spot in the 2013 bullpen, it is staggering to see how good this group could be and how long they could be good for.  The 8th and 9th inning are all but solidified with Mike Adams and Jonathan Papelbon. Antonio Bastardo will have a spot where he will look to find his groove of 2011 once again. One could assume that Phillippe Aumont should have a spot after showing his impressive stuff last year. Jeremy Horst should also be a lock as he opened many eyes in his debut late in the season. The Phils' old friend Chad Durbin is back in town and will likely have a job to start the year, but Durbin should be looking over his shoulder all season as the team has a host of quality arms competing for the seventh spot in the 'pen. Contenders for the final spot include: Michael Schwimer, Justin De Fratus, B.J. Rosenberg, Joe Savery, Mike Stutes, and Jake Diekman. Newly married Schwimer got a good amount of experience with the big club last year, and now has his new wife (who is quite impressive in her own respect) as motivation. Along with Schwimer, look for De Fratus or Stutes to make a strong push for the final slot in the bullpen.

After a season ending injury, Mike Stutes will be looking to contribute in 2013

   With offensive acquisitions that can only be described as mediocre, the 2013 pitching staff will be heavily relied upon throughout the year. In the rotation, bounce back years will be needed from Halladay and Lee. The bullpen has all the tools it needs to be successful, but with all of the young arms that are likely to contribute, there could definitely be some rough outings late in games. The Phillies will need all of the right pieces to fall into place if they are going to compete with very talented Washington and Atlana squads. 


 

Impact of Recent Acquisitions Mike Adams and John Lannan

Mike Adams will look to sure up the 8th inning for
the Phillies—a place where they struggled in 2012

On Saturday (12/15), Ruben Amaro made large strides by filling two much needed holes in his team with the additions of reliever, Mike Adams and starting pitcher, John Lannan. Both Adams and Lannan are expected to have important roles in the 2013 squad as the Phils' GM continues to piece together a respectable roster.

Mike Adams will provide late inning
support for closer,
Jonathan Papelbon

With the addition of Mike Adams, the Phillies acquire a 34 year old, right-handed reliever with a wealth of experience, most recently in San Diego and Texas. In his last three seasons, he has had more holds than any other set-up man in baseball. The Adams' deal, which started to surface on Friday night, was confirmed by multiple sources on Saturday morning. The two year, $12 million contract is currently pending a physical and is said to have a vesting option for a 3rd year if Adams surpasses 120 total appearances with 60 of them needing to be in 2014.  Adams is currently recovering from sugery that was performed to correct Thoracic Outlet Syndrome though he is expected to be ready for spring training. With his primary role being a bridge to closer Jonathan Papelbon, Adams may also be able to provide support in non-save situations, a spot where Papelbon struggeled heavily in 2012. This addition is a good move for the Phillies because it solidifies the back of the bullpen while adding experience to a mostly young group of relievers. With Adams, it all of a sudden seems like the bullpen has plenty of depth and many options to get the game into the hands of the newly created "two-headed monster" in the 8th and 9th.

Lannon went 2-2 with a 4.15 ERA
in 2012

    Shortly after the announcement of the Adams signing, Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly reported that the Phillies had come to terms with veteran left-hander, John Lannan. The deal is reportedly for  $2.5 million over 1 year with some cash incentives. Ruben Amaro said he was looking for a "low risk- high reward" starter and it looks like he found his guy in Lannan. The southpaw has spent his entire career with the Washington Nationals and has experienced many ups and downs through his 6 years of service. This contract all but guarantees a spot in the rotation for Lannan, though he will have many young arms waiting in the minor leagues ready to take over if he begins to struggle. This signing does have a little bit of a twist with the history that Lannan has against his new team. The Phillies have flat out destroyed Lannan in his carrer, as he sports a 3-13 record with a 5.53 ERA against the team. Another interesting note is the incident in 2007 where Lannan plunked Chase Utley on the hand, sending him to the disabled list late in the season as the Phillies were making a push for the postseason. Both being professionals, it is unlikely that Utley or Lannan will look back on this event but it could be something to keep an eye on.

These new additions go a long way in finalizing a pitching staff that will have to compete with very strong Washington and Atlanta teams in the division. It seems like the only other priority left on the agenda is securing a corner outfielder. With Josh Hamilton signing a mega-deal in Anaheim, the focus has turned to Nick Swisher and Cody Ross. Swisher may have a little more value, but his price tag may put the Phillies over the luxury tax. There are already reports that the Phillies are "intensifying" pursuit of Ross, who can be had for less money and would add some much needed power from the right side of the plate.

Ruben Amaro's To-Do List (12/7)

On Thursday, December 6th Ruben Amaro completed a trade with the Minnesota Twins in which the Phillies received center fielder Ben Revere in exchange for right hander Vance Worley and prospect Trevor May. With Revere now in pinstripes, fans are beginning to speculate what this 2013 lineup will look like. This Minnesota trade appears to be a move designed to free up money that can be better spent elsewhere. When looking at the current state of the team here in December, it is fairly obvious that there are other holes on the roster that need to be addressed.

1.     Corner Outfield- While the Phillies have Domonic Brown, Darin Ruf, and John Mayberry Jr., it seems as if Amaro’s goal in bettering the offense may come in the signing of a corner outfielder as the position seems to have the highest number of quality bats in the market.

Potential Candidates: Nick Swisher, Cody Ross, Josh Hamilton

2.    Starting Pitcher- Before the Ben Revere trade, starting pitching did not appear to be an issue. Now without Worley, the back of the rotation would most likely consist of Kyle Kendrick and Tyler Cloyd. While some may see those two fitting in nicely, there is already speculation that Amaro is on the lookout for a veteran starter.

Potential Candidates: Ryan Dempster, Shaun Marcum, Kyle Lohse, Edwin Jackson

3.      3^rd Base- While the 3^rd base market seems to be getting smaller by the day, the Phillies are currently set up to play a platoon of Kevin Frandsen and Freddy Galvis at the hot corner. There is no doubt that Amaro would like to improve at the position but there are very few options for the Phils GM.

Potential Candidates: Michael Young, Kevin Youkilis, Chone Figgins

On Friday, Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com said he had
a good vibe that the deal for Michael Young will in fact get done

     While it is unlikely that Ruben will be able to address all three holes, it seems feasible that at least two of them could be sufficiently filled. The thought of bringing in extra bullpen help has probably diminished for the time being but don’t be surprised if Amaro finds someone before the Phillies head to Clearwater for Spring Training. Only time will tell what the final pieces of this team will look like, but Ruben has a reputation of being sneaky when going about his business, and the outlook of the 2013 Phillies has potential to drastically change in an instant.